Where is Autonomous Trucking Headed in 2025?

Autonomous trucking hit the transportation sector filled with promise and prospects of a time when trucks of all sizes could deftly navigate the nation’s highways and byways without the need for human intervention (or, at least not too much intervention anyway).

Some of these aspirations have since been tempered a bit, but according to some recent reports, it looks like it’s still “full steam ahead” on the autonomous trucking front. The new year should bring some interesting innovations as software and hardware makers pool their efforts with vehicle manufacturers that have a vested interest in self-driving innovations.

To date, companies like Waymo, TuSimple and Embark Trucks have been conducting self-driving test runs on public roads; hardware makers have been developing more sophisticated sensor technologies; and software developers have been embedding more artificial intelligence (AI) to help trucks adapt to traffic scenarios, road conditions and other unknowns.

In Autonomous trucking check-in: Where freight’s future stands mid-decade, Jade Brasher writes about the successful use cases for autonomous trucking and how much more needs to be done before self-driving trucks become a common sight on U.S. roads. She says autonomous vehicle maker Aurora has tested its technology in trucks on real commercial partner routes, hauling 7,000 loads over nearly 2 million miles.

Aurora isn’t alone. Working with J.B. Hunt., Kodiak completed more than 50,000 autonomously driven miles in a weekly delivery application, shipping tires between South Carolina and Dallas, Texas. Between January and August 2024, autonomous trucks traveled the lane with 100% on-time deliveries and no accidents.

“The AV developer has also already completed actual fleet hauls without a driver in the cab, running on privately leased roads in Texas and New Mexico,” Brasher writes. “This marked the first reported time that a heavy-duty truck has hauled freight without a driver.”

The Future of Truck Freight Transportation

McKinsey & Co. is optimistic about the prospects of self-driving trucks but also realistic about the innovation’s current limitations. In Will autonomy usher in the future of truck freight transportation?, the research firm estimates that the market will reach $600 billion in value by 2035. It credits the driver shortage and rising transportation costs as being two of the key reasons why time, money and effort are being put into the sector.

The U.S. has a shortage of more than 80,000 drivers; that number is expected to double by 2030, according to McKinsey. Additionally, the median age of a truck driver in the United States is 46, compared with 42 for the workforce overall. Also, transportation costs have increased substantially in recent years. In the U.S., for example, the cost of logistics as a share of nominal GDP climbed from 7.5 percent in 2020 to 8.7 percent in 2023.

“Key causes are higher driver salaries and costs for fuel and tolls, and these are expected to further increase with shifts to higher emissions standards and zero-emission vehicles,” McKinsey points out. “These additional costs could be offset meaningfully through lower costs of truck operations enabled by autonomous driving.”

As autonomous trucking continues to mature, McKinsey’s analysts expect it to make commercial transport more efficient, affordable and sustainable. These benefits would translate into wins for consumers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), fleet operators and other players in the transportation ecosystem.

“As artificial and robotics systems advance, self-driving trucks will transition from a futuristic concept to an everyday reality on our roadways,” WarehousingAndFulfillment.com’s Will Schneider writes. “This shift promises to dramatically alter the economics, safety, and efficiency of road freight transport.”

The Driving Forces Behind the Sector

Technology companies and traditional truck manufacturers are both investing billions of dollars in developing autonomous trucking capabilities right now. If those dividends pay off, Schneider expects driverless trucks to become a “common sight” on highways within the next decade.

And while these trucks are expected to deliver numerous benefits—increased safety through the elimination of human error, 24/7 operations capabilities, reduced fuel consumption—the technology still faces hurdles like regulatory challenges, cybersecurity concerns and fears over job displacement in the trucking sector.

Schneider says there are also regulatory issues to address. Right now, regulations on autonomous trucks vary by U.S. state, with some more permissive than others in allowing their testing and deployment on public roads. He says a 50-state rule for autonomous trucking (H.R. 7126 Autonomous Vehicle Accessibility Act) is currently in the early stages.

“For now, roughly 24 states, including Arizona, Florida, and Texas, allow self-driving trucks. Of these states, some have introduced legislation requiring a human driver in trucks weighing over 10,000 pounds,” Schneider points out. “Another 16 states have no regulations specific to autonomous trucks while 10 states, including California, Illinois, and New York, placed limits on their use.”

Widespread Adoption Ahead?

Despite the challenges that still need to be addressed, the potential benefits of autonomous trucking are clear: increased safety, operational efficiency and reduced costs all promise a coming revolution in the road freight transport industry. For 2025 at least, the autonomous trucking landscape will continue to be a journey of both progress and hurdles. The industry will be navigating this balancing act, ensuring safety, addressing job displacement and adhering to clear regulations that help pave the way for widespread adoption.

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